Big Red Wave’s a Coming – Part Deux

Just in case MP Mike Sullivan thinks his re-election will be a walk in the park, a disquieting item came courtesy of a group that makes election predictions by aggregating poll results. According to ThreeHundredEight.com‘s latest nation-wide predictions, Liberal candidate Ahmed Hussen would have an 86% chance of winning York South-Weston if an election were held today.

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ThreeHundredEight.com:Con.       Lib.       NDP.

Mr Hussen’s ability to win the Liberal nomination, despite stiff opposition should let Mr Sullivan know that he is not up against an amateur. Mr Hussen is backed by powerful interests including Weston-born George Smitherman.

Obviously, an election will not be held today, next week or even next month. However, Stephen Harper is making rent-a-crowd announcements almost daily and could legally call an election at any time. Many pundits think that he’ll abandon the scheduled October date and hold a Spring election before the more negative effects of low oil prices, foreign troop involvement and a vanishing surplus can be felt. If that is the case, Mr Sullivan and his staff need to get their skates on. While the Tories aren’t likely to be a factor in the riding, YSW is traditionally a federal Liberal seat and the Jack Layton effect is sadly no more.

3 thoughts on “Big Red Wave’s a Coming – Part Deux”

  1. Strange. The poll suggests most Liberal gains at PC expense, only 30 from NDP incumbents. Yet a massive voter switch.

  2. Possibly. Depends on alot of things. No one can be complacent in a riding like this. Liberal fortunes ride with Trudeau. Either its going to be a juggernaught or a massive flame out. Also depends if there is a high profile Conservative candidate as well. If the Liberals and NDP split the vote, a Conservative could theoretically come up the middle with a high profile candidate. I’ve heard rumblings that John Nunziata may take a crack at it. His name recognition could throw the local race up in the air.

  3. It will be a close race, and if there is a Justin wave, Mike will be in trouble. However, the NDP has never been this strong in York South-Weston and they have a lot of money in the bank to keep this riding orange.

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