CP 24 hosts an interesting page of statistics detailing crime across the city for the last few years. Visitors can see the occurrence of categories of crime for a particular police division or month and see the trends for a the last few years along with the ‘clearance’ which is police parlance for solved.
Having taken statistics courses in the golden era of the abacus (the more modern plastic ones though), we were trained to stay calm about trends when the occurrence rate is small. For example, murders in 12 Division were down 60% last year. That sounds like a huge drop but the actual number went from 5 in 2016 to 2 in 2017. Wonderful news but while 60% is more impressive, it’s not the whole picture.
More concerning is that certain crimes seem to be hard to solve. Only 28 out of 216 stolen car cases in 12 Division were solved last year for a dismal 13% clearance rate. Not encouraging for those who leave their car outside overnight.
There is some good news.
- Our officers in 12 Division seem to be marginally better at solving crime than their colleagues in the rest of the city. Their clearance rate is 55% for all crime compared to 50% for the city as a whole.
- Across the whole of Toronto, crime appears to have continued its steady downward trend after a blip last year.
- February is the month when criminal behaviour is consistently at its lowest here and across the city.
Find the CP24 page at this link.